The Carolina Hurricanes' decision to trade Jake Guentzel's signing rights to the Tampa Bay Lightning just before free agency began in 2024 has sparked a lot of debate and speculation. Personally, I think this move was a missed opportunity for the Canes, and it's light years worse than the Mikko Rantanen saga. Guentzel, who had been a key player for the team, was a no-brainer to keep. He complemented and elevated two of the team's top stars, Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, and his presence on the top line made the Canes one of the most dangerous teams in the league. In my opinion, the Canes should have done everything in their power to keep Guentzel, and I can't help but wonder what could have been if they had. What makes this particularly fascinating is the potential impact Guentzel could have had on the team's success. If he had stayed, the Canes might have been able to get over the hump and win the Stanley Cup. The team's top line, which already included Aho and Jarvis, would have become even more formidable with Guentzel's addition. From March 12 through the end of the season, Aho had 11 goals, seven of which saw Guentzel earn the primary helper, and eight assists. He fell two goals shy of tying his career high (37) while blowing past his previous best in points (89). However, no player benefited more from Guentzel's arrival than Jarvis. While he might've had slightly fewer points than Aho during that stretch (17), he scored 13 times over the final month to record his first of three consecutive 30-goal seasons. Guentzel assisted on nine of them in some capacity. The Canes' power play thrived, too, converting almost 30 percent of the time in 17 games. If the Canes had kept Guentzel, the team's free agency spending would have looked very different. Re-signing Guentzel would have taken a significant chunk of the money allocated for Eric Robinson, Jack Roslovic, William Carrier, Tyson Jost, Sean Walker, and Shayne Gostisbehere. This would have likely meant that the Canes would have prioritized Gostisbehere over Walker, and they might not have brought in Roslovic. It also puts Necas in an interesting situation. The Canes nearly traded Necas to Columbus at the 2024 Draft for the fourth pick, but it fell through. Guentzel's leaving made the Canes reverse course, giving Necas a bridge deal. If Guentzel stays, it probably doesn't. Just for fun, let's say that the Hurricanes trade Necas to Columbus for the pick. Not only are they keeping Guentzel, but they're adding a potential star at the top of the draft. Columbus selected defenseman Cayden Lindstrom with the fourth pick. However, right after him, Montreal took Ivan Demidov. Can you imagine if the Canes had swooped in and taken him instead? The Canes would've rolled into Opening Night 2024 against a Guentzel-less Tampa Bay team looking very different. They make the playoffs, to no one's surprise, but not having Necas on the roster means we don't get the 'avalanche' of moves that turn in Taylor Hall or Logan Stankoven. If they make the same run to the Eastern Conference Finals, I'm not sure if they get past Florida this time, either. It also means that the Canes' offseason plans for 2025 look different. Nikolaj Ehlers and K'Andre Miller might not be Hurricanes, but the prospect of Demidov playing a full season is pretty fun. He had a good rookie campaign in Montreal, finishing second for the Calder Trophy. He slots in on the second line, likely with Jesperi Kotkaniemi to start, with a potential deadline move for a center if needed. When it comes to the 2026 postseason, I don't think scoring is an issue. This alternate top line needs to be more engaged and active than the present one, but I think the team still gets plenty of secondary scoring. At the very least, they make it to the Stanley Cup Final again. Whether they win is a different story. The guys the Canes would be without in this new reality played a major role. If Guentzel stays with the Canes, I still think he posts some big numbers. I'm not saying he scores at a 120-point pace as he did at the end of the 2023-24 season, but 30-35 goals and 80-90 points wouldn't be out of the question. Aho and Jarvis likely follow suit, scoring in bunches and guiding the power play. With as much as the lines move around in Raleigh, he could've helped a ton of players. Obviously, this is all speculation. I have no clue how much of this happens with the decision to keep one player on the roster. The Canes might've kept Necas to start the 2024-25 season and traded him elsewhere mid-season, setting in motion a completely different timeline. All of this is to say that Guentzel might've changed the course of history. For better or for worse? We'll never know.
